It's been a tumultuous week for U.S. gamers, starting with the full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2 and its accompanying games. However, the excitement quickly turned to concern when the $450 price tag and $80 for Mario Kart Tour were announced. The roller coaster continued as Nintendo decided to delay pre-orders due to the Trump Administration's sudden and sweeping tariffs affecting nearly every nation.
We've previously explored why the Nintendo Switch 2 is priced so high and what the industry's trade association predicts regarding the impact of these tariffs on the gaming industry as a whole. But the burning question now is, what will Nintendo do? Will the Nintendo Switch 2's price increase when pre-orders finally open?
Typically, when faced with questions about the future of video games, I consult a panel of expert industry analysts. Although they can't predict the future with certainty, they usually provide a consensus based on evidence and data. I've done this twice this week already.
However, for the first time since I began interviewing analysts on these topics, every single one was stumped. Some guessed that Nintendo would raise prices, while others thought they wouldn't. Yet, all responses were heavily caveated with an emphasis on the current chaotic situation. This unprecedented scenario has left everyone unable to predict what Nintendo, Trump, or anyone else will do in the coming days, weeks, or months.
With that in mind, here's what the analysts I spoke to had to say:
Sky-High Switch
The analysts were divided in their predictions. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially believed it was too late for Nintendo to raise prices after announcing them. However, the delay in pre-orders has changed his mind. He now believes Nintendo will likely run simulations and announce price hikes for the system, games, and accessories.
"It is very difficult to predict, but Nintendo will likely take a few days to run simulations and then announce hikes, not only for the system itself but also games and accessories," he said. "I hope I am wrong but if sustained, these sky-high tariffs leave them no choice. Would you be surprised now to see Switch 2 hit US$500 for the base model? I wouldn't."
Toto also questioned Nintendo's timing, wondering why they didn't wait for the U.S. to resolve the tariffs before setting prices.
Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, echoed Toto's sentiments but emphasized the unpredictability of the situation. He believes that the tariffs' breadth and depth caught everyone by surprise, including Nintendo, which likely had different assumptions when setting the original price.
"Every reasonable and responsible business that relies on international supply chains will be reevaluating its US consumer pricing at this point. They have to," Piscatella said. He noted that the U.S. might join other regions in facing higher game prices due to the chaotic nature of the tariffs.
Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, also predicts higher hardware prices but believes software prices might not be as affected. He pointed out that the growing dominance of digital distribution could mitigate the impact of tariffs on physical games.
"While physical versions might be subject to tariffs, the growing dominance and lower cost of digital distribution would likely limit any broader effect," Rosier said. He added that if a substantial tariff increase were introduced, companies like Nintendo would likely pass the cost onto consumers rather than cutting into their margins.
Holding the Line
On the other hand, Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, believes Nintendo will try hard to avoid raising the Switch 2's price, despite the high tariffs on Vietnam.
"I believe the volatility from the Trump tariffs was already considered in the Switch 2's $449.99 pricing," he said. Van Dreunen noted that Nintendo has restructured its supply chain to mitigate geopolitical risks and historically aimed for a launch price around the $400 mark, adjusted for inflation.
"Nevertheless, the unpredictable nature of these tariff decisions—exemplified by the recent situation in Vietnam—injects a significant amount of uncertainty into the market," he added. He believes Nintendo will strive to maintain the $449.99 price point but may be forced to reassess if the trade landscape worsens.
Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agrees that Nintendo risks consumer backlash if it raises prices further. He believes the company will delay any price changes until at least 2026, hoping for a resolution to the tariff situation in the coming weeks.
"The extent of the tariffs and its impact on Vietnamese exports are really bad news for Nintendo," Harding-Rolls said. "The company is now in between a rock and a hard place, having already announced the launch price... Nintendo will not want to change the price having announced it, but I think everything is on the table now."
Living in Unhinged Times
Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicts higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He referenced his previous comments on Nintendo's strategy to encourage digital purchases in certain markets.
"It seems the lower prices in other markets were to nudge Switch 2 buyers to digital, as I mentioned my comments to IGN about Mario Kart World’s pricing," Elliott said. He noted that the chaotic tariff situation has left Nintendo in a "wait and see" mode.
Elliott also painted a grim picture of the broader impact of tariffs on the gaming industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He believes that the tariffs will lead to a "weaker, poorer nation," with consumers ultimately bearing the cost.
"Some manufacturers – Nintendo included – have been shifting their manufacturing to non-tariff-impacted markets," Elliott said. "And even if companies can afford to switch up (no pun intended!) their supply chains, who knows which markets will get tariffs next – as recent news supports."
He criticized the tariffs as detrimental to U.S. consumers during a cost-of-living crisis and contrary to core economic principles of international trade.
Nintendo Switch 2 System and Accessories Gallery
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In summary, the analysts are split on whether Nintendo will raise the price of the Switch 2 due to the tariffs, with some predicting an increase and others believing the company will try to hold the line. However, all agree that the situation is unprecedented and unpredictable, leaving the future of the Switch 2's pricing uncertain.
