Switch 2: Projected to Dominate Next-Gen Console Sales
A leading video game market research firm, DFC Intelligence, boldly predicts the Nintendo Switch 2 will be the best-selling next-gen console, even before its official release. Their forecast projects impressive sales figures, outpacing all competitors. Let's dive into the details.
80 Million Units by 2028: A Clear Winner?
DFC Intelligence's 2024 Video Game Market Report and Forecast, released December 17th, declares the Nintendo Switch 2 the "clear winner" in the next-generation console race. The report positions Nintendo as the console market leader, projecting sales of 15-17 million units in 2025 and a staggering 80 million units by 2028. This success is attributed to the Switch 2's anticipated earlier release (rumored for 2025) and a relative lack of immediate competition. The report even suggests Nintendo might face manufacturing challenges to meet the predicted high demand.
While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these projects appear to be in earlier stages of development. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028. This three-year head start for the Switch 2 (unless a surprise release occurs in 2026) is expected to solidify its market dominance. The report suggests only one of the post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve significant success, potentially a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established player base and strong intellectual properties.
Adding to Nintendo's momentum, the Switch's lifetime unit sales have recently surpassed those of the PlayStation 2 in the United States, as reported by Circana (formerly NPD). Mat Piscatella, executive director and analyst at Circana, highlighted this achievement on BlueSky, noting that the Switch now holds the second position in all-time U.S. video game hardware sales, trailing only the Nintendo DS. This milestone is particularly noteworthy considering the Switch's reported 3% decrease in yearly sales.
A Resurgent Video Game Industry
DFC Intelligence paints a positive outlook for the video game industry, projecting robust growth through the end of the decade after a period of slowing sales. 2025 is highlighted as a potential banner year, fueled by new product releases and renewed consumer interest. In addition to the Switch 2, the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI, slated for a 2025 release, is expected to significantly boost overall sales.
The report forecasts the global video game player base to exceed 4 billion by 2027. The increasing popularity of "high-end gaming-on-the-go" through portable systems, coupled with the growth of esports and gaming influencers, contributes to this positive trajectory, driving hardware sales across PC and consoles.
