Analysts have described Nintendo's sales projection for the Switch 2 as "conservative," as the company navigates continued uncertainty surrounding tariffs.
In its latest financial report, Nintendo forecasts selling 15 million Switch 2 units and 45 million games in the current fiscal year, which ends on March 31, 2026. The Switch 2 is scheduled to launch on June 5.
Nintendo stated its forecast is based on the assumption that U.S. tariffs introduced on April 10 will remain in effect throughout the fiscal year, though it acknowledged that any changes to tariff rates could impact these projections. “We will continue monitoring the situation and respond to shifting market conditions,” the company added.
Daniel Ahmad, Director of Research & Insights at Niko Partners, noted that the 15 million unit target appears “conservative,” tweeting that Nintendo seems to be “factoring in unpredictability around tariffs, pricing, and production—despite strong pre-order momentum.”
Ahmad added that Nintendo could adjust its forecast upward if tariffs are rolled back. “However, the main challenge now stems from ripple effects already disrupting the console launch environment, not to mention the ongoing threat of further tariff increases.”
It's important to note that selling 15 million Switch 2 units in its first year would mark one of the most successful console launches ever, surpassing the original Switch’s first-year sales of 14.87 million.
Demand for the Switch 2 appears exceptionally strong. Following a delay linked to tariffs, pre-orders opened on April 24 with the console priced at $449.99—and the response was as intense as expected. Meanwhile, Nintendo has issued a notice to U.S. customers who pre-ordered through the My Nintendo Store, cautioning that release-day delivery is not guaranteed due to extremely high demand.
For more details, check out IGN's Nintendo Switch 2 pre-order guide.
